Al Shorta 1–2 Al Hilal Omdurman: Result & Stats

Al Shorta

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Al Hilal Omdurman

11/30/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 11Al-Gadarf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Al Shorta22%

×Draw27%

Al Hilal Omdurman51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ShortaExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Omdurman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.42

Al Shorta

0.82

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.42

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 73% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 64 away

1.01

creates per match

1.88

0.97

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Al Shorta

1.01

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.88

allows per match

Al Shorta

0.97

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw

49%

Al Shorta or Al Hilal Omdurman

73%

Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman

78%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+

7%

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals

56%

Al Shorta 2+ goals

20%

Al Shorta 3+ goals

5%

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals

76%

Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals

41%

Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)

30%

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.01 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.82

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 1.88 + Al Shorta defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Shorta scores more

22%

level

27%

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more

51%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff