Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Shorta — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
3 – 0
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
7/13/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 23Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman71%
×Draw19%
Al Shorta10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.10
Al Shorta
0.64

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 228% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 83 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.53
Al Shorta
0.89

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.39
Al Shorta
1.67

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
90%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Al Shorta
81%
Draw or Al Shorta
29%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
46%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
88%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
62%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
35%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
47%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
14%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
88%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.39 · 77 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.53 + Al Shorta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.10

Al Shorta attack 0.89 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
71%
level
19%
Al Shorta scores more
10%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Shorta

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Al Shorta 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on July 13, 2021.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.