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Al Shorta vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
2 – 2
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
8/23/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 30Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Al Shorta44%
×Draw30%
Al-Ahly Merowe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.18
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.83

Al Shorta creates 42% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 74 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.01
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.70

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.97
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.35

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
74%
Al Shorta or Al-Ahly Merowe
70%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
56%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
19%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
69%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
33%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
12%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
56%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
20%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
63%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.01 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Al Shorta defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Shorta scores more
44%
level
30%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
26%

Al Shorta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shorta vs Al-Ahly Merowe

Al Shorta and Al-Ahly Merowe drew 2-2 in Sudani Premier League on August 23, 2021.

The match was played at Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium in Umm Durmān.