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Al-Ahly Merowe vs Al Shorta — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
FT
3 – 2
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
7/1/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 23Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe46%
×Draw28%
Al Shorta26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahly Merowe
1.30
Al Shorta
0.91

Al-Ahly Merowe creates 43% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 83 away

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.94
Al Shorta
0.89

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.93
Al Shorta
1.67

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw
74%
Al-Ahly Merowe or Al Shorta
72%
Draw or Al Shorta
54%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
21%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
73%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
37%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
14%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
60%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
23%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
64%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.94 + Al Shorta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Al Shorta attack 0.89 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
46%
level
28%
Al Shorta scores more
26%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahly Merowe vs Al Shorta

Al-Ahly Merowe beat Al Shorta 3-2 in Sudani Premier League on July 1, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.