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Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr — Pro League 2018

Al Shabab
Al Shabab
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
2/25/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 21Al-Shabab Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Al Shabab32%
×Draw24%
Al-Nassr44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shabab
1.38
Al-Nassr
1.67

Al-Nassr creates 21% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 126 away

creates per match

Al Shabab
1.78
Al-Nassr
2.17

allows per match

Al Shabab
1.17
Al-Nassr
0.98

finishing

Al Shabab+0.00on par
Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shabab ↓

Al-Nassr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Shabab or draw
56%
Al Shabab or Al-Nassr
76%
Draw or Al-Nassr
68%

Winning margin

Al Shabab wins by 2+
14%
Al-Nassr wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al Shabab 1+ goals
75%
Al Shabab 2+ goals
40%
Al Shabab 3+ goals
16%
Al-Nassr 1+ goals
81%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
50%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al Shabab (draw refunded)
42%
Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shabab at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shabab attack 1.78 + Al-Nassr defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al-Nassr attack 2.17 + Al Shabab defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Shabab scores more
32%
level
24%
Al-Nassr scores more
44%

Al-Nassr at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr

Al-Nassr beat Al Shabab 3-2 in Pro League on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Riyadh.