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Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab — Pro League 2018

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Al Shabab
Al Shabab
3/7/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 24Al-Awwal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Al-Nassr58%
×Draw22%
Al Shabab20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
1.94
Al Shabab
1.05

Al-Nassr creates 85% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
2.24
Al Shabab
1.26

allows per match

Al-Nassr
0.84
Al Shabab
1.63

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.36scores more
Al Shabab+0.24scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al Shabab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
80%
Al-Nassr or Al Shabab
78%
Draw or Al Shabab
42%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
34%
Al Shabab wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
86%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
58%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
30%
Al Shabab 1+ goals
65%
Al Shabab 2+ goals
28%
Al Shabab 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
74%
Al Shabab (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.84 · 5 matches

Al Shabab away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.63 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.24 + Al Shabab defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.94

Al Shabab attack 1.26 + Al-Nassr defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
58%
level
22%
Al Shabab scores more
20%

Al-Nassr at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Nassr 2–2 Al Shabab

Al-Nassr and Al Shabab drew 2-2 in Pro League on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh.