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Al Sahel vs Al Ittihad — Premier League 2019

Al Sahel
Al Sahel
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad
4/14/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Al Baladi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Al Sahel24%
×Draw27%
Al Ittihad49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sahel
0.91
Al Ittihad
1.42

Al Ittihad creates 56% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 83 away

creates per match

Al Sahel
0.80
Al Ittihad
1.45

allows per match

Al Sahel
1.40
Al Ittihad
1.01

finishing

Al Sahel+0.00on par
Al Ittihad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sahel ↓

Al Ittihad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Sahel or draw
51%
Al Sahel or Al Ittihad
73%
Draw or Al Ittihad
76%

Winning margin

Al Sahel wins by 2+
8%
Al Ittihad wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Al Sahel 1+ goals
60%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
23%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
6%
Al Ittihad 1+ goals
76%
Al Ittihad 2+ goals
41%
Al Ittihad 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Al Sahel (draw refunded)
33%
Al Ittihad (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sahel at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

Al Ittihad away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.01 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sahel attack 0.80 + Al Ittihad defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91

Al Ittihad attack 1.45 + Al Sahel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Sahel scores more
24%
level
27%
Al Ittihad scores more
49%

Al Ittihad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Sahel vs Al Ittihad

Al Sahel beat Al Ittihad 2-1 in Premier League on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Al Baladi Stadium in Tartous.