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Al Ittihad vs Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Sahel
Al Sahel
3/31/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Al-Hamadaniah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Al Ittihad63%
×Draw23%
Al Sahel14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ittihad
1.77
Al Sahel
0.69

Al Ittihad creates 157% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 24 away

creates per match

Al Ittihad
1.57
Al Sahel
0.63

allows per match

Al Ittihad
0.74
Al Sahel
1.96

finishing

Al Ittihad+0.00on par
Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ittihad ↓

Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Ittihad or draw
86%
Al Ittihad or Al Sahel
77%
Draw or Al Sahel
37%

Winning margin

Al Ittihad wins by 2+
37%
Al Sahel wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Ittihad 1+ goals
83%
Al Ittihad 2+ goals
53%
Al Ittihad 3+ goals
26%
Al Sahel 1+ goals
50%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
15%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Ittihad (draw refunded)
82%
Al Sahel (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ittihad at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.74 · 81 matches

Al Sahel away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ittihad attack 1.57 + Al Sahel defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.77

Al Sahel attack 0.63 + Al Ittihad defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al Ittihad scores more
63%
level
23%
Al Sahel scores more
14%

Al Ittihad at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ittihad 1–1 Al Sahel

Al Ittihad and Al Sahel drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Hamadaniah Stadium in Aleppo.