Al Saham Ad Damer 0–0 Al Fallah: Result & Stats

Al Saham Ad Damer

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Fallah

2/4/2026

Sudani Premier League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Saham Ad Damer42%

×Draw36%

Al Fallah22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Saham Ad DamerExpected goals in this matchAl Fallah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.57

Al Saham Ad Damer

0.91

Al Fallah

0.57

Al Saham Ad Damer creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

0.40

creates per match

0.35

0.80

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Al Saham Ad Damer

0.40

Al Fallah

0.35

allows per match

Al Saham Ad Damer

0.80

Al Fallah

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Saham Ad Damer+0.00on par

Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Saham Ad Damer ↓

Al Fallah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

44%56%2.5

19%81%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Al Saham Ad Damer or draw

78%

Al Saham Ad Damer or Al Fallah

64%

Draw or Al Fallah

58%

Winning margin

Al Saham Ad Damer wins by 2+

15%

Al Fallah wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al Saham Ad Damer 1+ goals

60%

Al Saham Ad Damer 2+ goals

23%

Al Saham Ad Damer 3+ goals

6%

Al Fallah 1+ goals

43%

Al Fallah 2+ goals

11%

Al Fallah 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Al Saham Ad Damer (draw refunded)

66%

Al Fallah (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Saham Ad Damer at home — creates 0.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Saham Ad Damer attack 0.40 + Al Fallah defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.91

Al Fallah attack 0.35 + Al Saham Ad Damer defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Saham Ad Damer scores more

42%

level

36%

Al Fallah scores more

22%

Al Saham Ad Damer at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Saham Ad Damer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff