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Al Fallah vs Al Saham Ad Damer — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Fallah
Al Fallah
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Saham Ad Damer
Al Saham Ad Damer
1/16/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Fallah25%
×Draw28%
Al Saham Ad Damer47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fallah
0.88
Al Saham Ad Damer
1.33

Al Saham Ad Damer creates 51% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al Fallah
0.75
Al Saham Ad Damer
1.60

allows per match

Al Fallah
1.06
Al Saham Ad Damer
1.00

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par
Al Saham Ad Damer+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Al Saham Ad Damer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw
53%
Al Fallah or Al Saham Ad Damer
72%
Draw or Al Saham Ad Damer
75%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+
8%
Al Saham Ad Damer wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals
59%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
22%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
6%
Al Saham Ad Damer 1+ goals
74%
Al Saham Ad Damer 2+ goals
38%
Al Saham Ad Damer 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)
34%
Al Saham Ad Damer (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Al Saham Ad Damer away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 0.75 + Al Saham Ad Damer defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Al Saham Ad Damer attack 1.60 + Al Fallah defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Fallah scores more
25%
level
28%
Al Saham Ad Damer scores more
47%

Al Saham Ad Damer at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Saham Ad Damer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Fallah 0–0 Al Saham Ad Damer

Al Fallah and Al Saham Ad Damer drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 16, 2026.