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Al Saham Ad Damer vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Saham Ad Damer
Al Saham Ad Damer
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
2/7/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Saham Ad Damer36%
×Draw35%
Al-Ahly Merowe29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Saham Ad Damer
0.88
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.75

Al Saham Ad Damer creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 74 away

creates per match

Al Saham Ad Damer
0.40
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.70

allows per match

Al Saham Ad Damer
0.80
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.35

finishing

Al Saham Ad Damer+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Saham Ad Damer ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Al Saham Ad Damer or draw
71%
Al Saham Ad Damer or Al-Ahly Merowe
65%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
64%

Winning margin

Al Saham Ad Damer wins by 2+
13%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Saham Ad Damer 1+ goals
59%
Al Saham Ad Damer 2+ goals
22%
Al Saham Ad Damer 3+ goals
6%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
53%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
17%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Saham Ad Damer (draw refunded)
56%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Saham Ad Damer at home — creates 0.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Saham Ad Damer attack 0.40 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.88

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Al Saham Ad Damer defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Saham Ad Damer scores more
36%
level
35%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
29%

Al Saham Ad Damer at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Saham Ad Damer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Saham Ad Damer vs Al-Ahly Merowe

Al Saham Ad Damer and Al-Ahly Merowe drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 7, 2026.