Al-Ahly Merowe 1–1 Al Saham Ad Damer

Al-Ahly Merowe

FT

1 – 1

Al Saham Ad Damer

1/19/2026

Sudani Premier League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe28%

×Draw28%

Al Saham Ad Damer43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahly MeroweExpected goals in this matchAl Saham Ad Damer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.27

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.97

Al Saham Ad Damer

1.27

Al Saham Ad Damer creates 31% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 5 away

0.95

creates per match

1.60

0.94

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.95

Al Saham Ad Damer

1.60

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.94

Al Saham Ad Damer

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Al Saham Ad Damer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Al Saham Ad Damer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw

57%

Al-Ahly Merowe or Al Saham Ad Damer

72%

Draw or Al Saham Ad Damer

72%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+

10%

Al Saham Ad Damer wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals

62%

Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals

25%

Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals

7%

Al Saham Ad Damer 1+ goals

72%

Al Saham Ad Damer 2+ goals

36%

Al Saham Ad Damer 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)

40%

Al Saham Ad Damer (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.94 · 81 matches

Al Saham Ad Damer away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.95 + Al Saham Ad Damer defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Al Saham Ad Damer attack 1.60 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more

28%

level

28%

Al Saham Ad Damer scores more

43%

Al Saham Ad Damer at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Saham Ad Damer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff