Al Safa 0–1 Al Najma: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al Safa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Najma

9/18/2024

Division 1 · Round 4Al Safwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Safa33%

×Draw23%

Al Najma43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SafaExpected goals in this matchAl Najma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.72

Al Safa

1.48

Al Najma

1.72

Al Najma creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

1.47

creates per match

1.65

1.79

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Al Safa

1.47

Al Najma

1.65

allows per match

Al Safa

1.79

Al Najma

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Safa+0.00on par

Al Najma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Safa ↓

Al Najma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Al Safa or draw

57%

Al Safa or Al Najma

77%

Draw or Al Najma

67%

Winning margin

Al Safa wins by 2+

15%

Al Najma wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Al Safa 1+ goals

77%

Al Safa 2+ goals

43%

Al Safa 3+ goals

19%

Al Najma 1+ goals

82%

Al Najma 2+ goals

51%

Al Najma 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Al Safa (draw refunded)

43%

Al Najma (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Safa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Al Najma away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Safa attack 1.47 + Al Najma defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al Najma attack 1.65 + Al Safa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Safa scores more

33%

level

23%

Al Najma scores more

43%

Al Najma at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Najma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff