Al Najma 1–1 Al Safa: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al Najma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al Safa

5/7/2024

Division 1 · Round 31Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Najma52%

×Draw25%

Al Safa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NajmaExpected goals in this matchAl Safa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.98

Al Najma

1.61

Al Safa

0.98

Al Najma creates 64% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

1.44

creates per match

0.94

1.03

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Al Najma

1.44

Al Safa

0.94

allows per match

Al Najma

1.03

Al Safa

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Najma+0.00on par

Al Safa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najma ↓

Al Safa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Najma or draw

77%

Al Najma or Al Safa

75%

Draw or Al Safa

48%

Winning margin

Al Najma wins by 2+

28%

Al Safa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Najma 1+ goals

80%

Al Najma 2+ goals

48%

Al Najma 3+ goals

22%

Al Safa 1+ goals

62%

Al Safa 2+ goals

26%

Al Safa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Najma (draw refunded)

69%

Al Safa (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najma at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Al Safa away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najma attack 1.44 + Al Safa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.61

Al Safa attack 0.94 + Al Najma defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Najma scores more

52%

level

25%

Al Safa scores more

23%

Al Najma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Najma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff