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Al Safa vs Al Arabi SC — Division 1 2018

Al Safa
Al Safa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
9/14/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 5Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Safa39%
×Draw24%
Al Arabi SC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Safa
1.53
Al Arabi SC
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al Safa
1.47
Al Arabi SC
1.18

allows per match

Al Safa
1.79
Al Arabi SC
1.59

finishing

Al Safa+0.00on par
Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Safa ↓

Al Arabi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Safa or draw
63%
Al Safa or Al Arabi SC
76%
Draw or Al Arabi SC
61%

Winning margin

Al Safa wins by 2+
19%
Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Safa 1+ goals
78%
Al Safa 2+ goals
45%
Al Safa 3+ goals
20%
Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
77%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
43%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Al Safa (draw refunded)
51%
Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Safa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Al Arabi SC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Safa attack 1.47 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53

Al Arabi SC attack 1.18 + Al Safa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Safa scores more
39%
level
24%
Al Arabi SC scores more
37%

Al Safa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Safa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Safa 0–3 Al Arabi SC

Al Arabi SC beat Al Safa 3-0 in Division 1 on September 14, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.