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Al Arabi SC vs Al Safa — Division 1 2018

Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Safa
Al Safa
2/20/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 22Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Arabi SC48%
×Draw24%
Al Safa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi SC
1.65
Al Safa
1.19

Al Arabi SC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al Arabi SC
1.51
Al Safa
0.94

allows per match

Al Arabi SC
1.44
Al Safa
1.79

finishing

Al Arabi SC+0.00on par
Al Safa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi SC ↓

Al Safa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Arabi SC or draw
72%
Al Arabi SC or Al Safa
76%
Draw or Al Safa
52%

Winning margin

Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
25%
Al Safa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
81%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
49%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
23%
Al Safa 1+ goals
70%
Al Safa 2+ goals
33%
Al Safa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
64%
Al Safa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Al Safa away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi SC attack 1.51 + Al Safa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Al Safa attack 0.94 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Arabi SC scores more
48%
level
24%
Al Safa scores more
28%

Al Arabi SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Arabi SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Arabi SC 0–1 Al Safa

Al Safa beat Al Arabi SC 1-0 in Division 1 on February 20, 2024.

The match was played at Department of Education Stadium in Unaizah.