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Al Safa vs Abha — Division 1 2018

Al Safa
Al Safa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Abha
Abha
4/16/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 29Al Safwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Safa33%
×Draw24%
Abha43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Safa
1.43
Abha
1.65

Abha creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al Safa
1.47
Abha
1.50

allows per match

Al Safa
1.79
Abha
1.39

finishing

Al Safa+0.00on par
Abha+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Safa ↓

Abha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al Safa or draw
57%
Al Safa or Abha
76%
Draw or Abha
67%

Winning margin

Al Safa wins by 2+
15%
Abha wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Safa 1+ goals
76%
Al Safa 2+ goals
42%
Al Safa 3+ goals
17%
Abha 1+ goals
81%
Abha 2+ goals
49%
Abha 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al Safa (draw refunded)
44%
Abha (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Safa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Abha away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Safa attack 1.47 + Abha defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.43

Abha attack 1.50 + Al Safa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Safa scores more
33%
level
24%
Abha scores more
43%

Abha at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Abha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Safa 2–2 Abha

Al Safa and Abha drew 2-2 in Division 1 on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Al Safwa Stadium in Safwa.