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Abha vs Al Safa — Division 1 2018

Abha
Abha
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Safa
Al Safa
12/4/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 12Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Abha56%
×Draw24%
Al Safa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abha
1.72
Al Safa
0.93

Abha creates 85% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 34 away

creates per match

Abha
1.65
Al Safa
0.94

allows per match

Abha
0.92
Al Safa
1.79

finishing

Abha+0.00on par
Al Safa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abha ↓

Al Safa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Abha or draw
80%
Abha or Al Safa
76%
Draw or Al Safa
44%

Winning margin

Abha wins by 2+
31%
Al Safa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Abha 1+ goals
82%
Abha 2+ goals
51%
Abha 3+ goals
25%
Al Safa 1+ goals
61%
Al Safa 2+ goals
24%
Al Safa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Abha (draw refunded)
73%
Al Safa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abha at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.92 · 37 matches

Al Safa away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abha attack 1.65 + Al Safa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.72

Al Safa attack 0.94 + Abha defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Abha scores more
56%
level
24%
Al Safa scores more
20%

Abha at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Abha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abha vs Al Safa

Abha beat Al Safa 1-0 in Division 1 on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Abha.