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Al Sadd vs Sharjah FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Al Sadd
Al Sadd
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
9/18/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Sadd51%
×Draw23%
Sharjah FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sadd
1.77
Sharjah FC
1.19

Al Sadd creates 49% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Sadd
2.06
Sharjah FC
1.24

allows per match

Al Sadd
1.15
Sharjah FC
1.47

finishing

Al Sadd+0.00on par
Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadd ↓

Sharjah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Sadd or draw
74%
Al Sadd or Sharjah FC
77%
Draw or Sharjah FC
49%

Winning margin

Al Sadd wins by 2+
28%
Sharjah FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Sadd 1+ goals
83%
Al Sadd 2+ goals
53%
Al Sadd 3+ goals
26%
Sharjah FC 1+ goals
70%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
33%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Sadd (draw refunded)
66%
Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadd at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Sharjah FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadd attack 2.06 + Sharjah FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sharjah FC attack 1.24 + Al Sadd defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Sadd scores more
51%
level
23%
Sharjah FC scores more
26%

Al Sadd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Sadd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Sadd vs Sharjah FC

Al Sadd and Sharjah FC drew 0-0 in AFC Champions League on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.