Al Sadd 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah: Result & Stats

Al Sadd

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Ahli Jeddah

11/4/2025

AFC Champions League · League Phase West - 4Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al Sadd44%

×Draw24%

Al-Ahli Jeddah32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SaddExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Jeddah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.36

Al Sadd

1.65

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.36

Al Sadd creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

2.06

creates per match

1.58

1.15

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Al Sadd

2.06

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.58

allows per match

Al Sadd

1.15

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadd ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al Sadd or draw

68%

Al Sadd or Al-Ahli Jeddah

76%

Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah

56%

Winning margin

Al Sadd wins by 2+

23%

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Sadd 1+ goals

81%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

49%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

23%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

74%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

39%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

58%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadd at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadd attack 2.06 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.65

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.58 + Al Sadd defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Sadd scores more

44%

level

24%

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

32%

Al Sadd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Sadd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff