Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–0 Al Sadd: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Sadd

Omar Al-Soma 76', 32' (pen)

3/5/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah55%

×Draw23%

Al Sadd22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchAl Sadd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.11

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.87

Al Sadd

1.11

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 68% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 34 away

2.12

creates per match

1.26

0.96

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.12

Al Sadd

1.26

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

0.96

Al Sadd

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al Sadd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

78%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Sadd

77%

Draw or Al Sadd

45%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

31%

Al Sadd wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

85%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

56%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

29%

Al Sadd 1+ goals

67%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

30%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

71%

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

Al Sadd away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.12 + Al Sadd defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.87

Al Sadd attack 1.26 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

55%

level

23%

Al Sadd scores more

22%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Omar Al-Soma

Al-Ahli Jeddah · F

8.6

Match Events

32'

Omar Al-SomaPenalty

45'

Abdulbaset Al-Hindi

57'

Yousef Alharbi

61'

Pedro Miguel

63'

Ali Asadalla← Yasser Aboubaker Essa

67'

Taisir Al-Jassim← Yousef Alharbi

73'

Salman Al-Muwashar← Hussain Al Moqahwi

75'

Salem Al Hajri← Woo-Young Jung

76'

Omar Al-Soma↳ Salman Al-Muwashar

84'

Abdullah Tarmin← Djaniny

90'

Taisir Al-Jassim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-AhliAl

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots13

5Corners8

16Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target4

2Off Target9

4Blocked0

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

306Total Passes426

242Accurate Passes352

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2