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Al Riyadh vs Al Qaisoma — Division 1 2018

Al Riyadh
Al Riyadh
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Qaisoma
Al Qaisoma
1/16/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 17Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Riyadh42%
×Draw26%
Al Qaisoma33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Riyadh
1.45
Al Qaisoma
1.25

Al Riyadh creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

creates per match

Al Riyadh
1.35
Al Qaisoma
1.08

allows per match

Al Riyadh
1.41
Al Qaisoma
1.54

finishing

Al Riyadh+0.00on par
Al Qaisoma+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riyadh ↓

Al Qaisoma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Riyadh or draw
67%
Al Riyadh or Al Qaisoma
74%
Draw or Al Qaisoma
58%

Winning margin

Al Riyadh wins by 2+
20%
Al Qaisoma wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Riyadh 1+ goals
77%
Al Riyadh 2+ goals
42%
Al Riyadh 3+ goals
18%
Al Qaisoma 1+ goals
71%
Al Qaisoma 2+ goals
36%
Al Qaisoma 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Riyadh (draw refunded)
56%
Al Qaisoma (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riyadh at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Al Qaisoma away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riyadh attack 1.35 + Al Qaisoma defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Al Qaisoma attack 1.08 + Al Riyadh defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Riyadh scores more
42%
level
26%
Al Qaisoma scores more
33%

Al Riyadh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Riyadh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Riyadh vs Al Qaisoma

Al Riyadh beat Al Qaisoma 2-1 in Division 1 on January 16, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Riyadh.