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Al Qaisoma vs Al Riyadh — Division 1 2018

Al Qaisoma
Al Qaisoma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Riyadh
Al Riyadh
5/29/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 34Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Qaisoma23%
×Draw25%
Al Riyadh52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Qaisoma
0.96
Al Riyadh
1.59

Al Riyadh creates 66% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Qaisoma
1.17
Al Riyadh
1.71

allows per match

Al Qaisoma
1.47
Al Riyadh
0.76

finishing

Al Qaisoma+0.00on par
Al Riyadh+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qaisoma ↓

Al Riyadh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Qaisoma or draw
48%
Al Qaisoma or Al Riyadh
75%
Draw or Al Riyadh
77%

Winning margin

Al Qaisoma wins by 2+
8%
Al Riyadh wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Al Qaisoma 1+ goals
62%
Al Qaisoma 2+ goals
25%
Al Qaisoma 3+ goals
7%
Al Riyadh 1+ goals
80%
Al Riyadh 2+ goals
47%
Al Riyadh 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Al Qaisoma (draw refunded)
31%
Al Riyadh (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qaisoma at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 36 matches

Al Riyadh away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qaisoma attack 1.17 + Al Riyadh defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.96

Al Riyadh attack 1.71 + Al Qaisoma defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Qaisoma scores more
23%
level
25%
Al Riyadh scores more
52%

Al Riyadh at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Riyadh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Qaisoma 1–1 Al Riyadh

Al Qaisoma and Al Riyadh drew 1-1 in Division 1 on May 29, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Hafar Al-Batin.