Al Riyadh 3–1 Al Kholood: Result & Stats

Al Riyadh

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Kholood

Mohammed Al Aqel 90+4'

Ibrahim Bayesh 75'

Mohammed Jahfali 21' (OG)

Álex Collado 50'

8/29/2024

Pro League · Round 2Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Al Riyadh38%

×Draw24%

Al Kholood38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al RiyadhExpected goals in this matchAl Kholood

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

Al Riyadh

1.52

Al Kholood

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.15

creates per match

1.46

1.59

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Al Riyadh

1.15

Al Kholood

1.46

allows per match

Al Riyadh

1.59

Al Kholood

1.89

-0.51scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Al Riyadh-0.51scores less

Al Kholood+0.04on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riyadh ↓

Al Kholood →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al Riyadh or draw

62%

Al Riyadh or Al Kholood

76%

Draw or Al Kholood

62%

Winning margin

Al Riyadh wins by 2+

18%

Al Kholood wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Riyadh 1+ goals

78%

Al Riyadh 2+ goals

45%

Al Riyadh 3+ goals

20%

Al Kholood 1+ goals

78%

Al Kholood 2+ goals

45%

Al Kholood 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Al Riyadh (draw refunded)

50%

Al Kholood (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riyadh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.59 · 11 matches

Al Kholood away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.89 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riyadh attack 1.15 + Al Kholood defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al Kholood attack 1.46 + Al Riyadh defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Riyadh scores more

38%

level

24%

Al Kholood scores more

38%

Al Riyadh at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Riyadh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Álex Collado

Al Kholood · F

8.9

Match Events

21'

Mohammed JahfaliOwn goal

23'

Mohammed JahfaliGoal confirmed

28'

Abdullah Al-Hawsawi

30'

Yazeed Al Bakr

45+12'

Hamdan Al-Shamrani

45+4'

Suwailem Al Manhali← Yazeed Al Bakr

46'

Muhammad Sawan← Abdullah Al Hawsawi

46'

K. N'Doram← Mohammed Jahfali

50'

Álex Collado

66'

Mohammed Al Aqel← M. Konaté

66'

Y. Barbet← Marzouq Tambakti

75'

Ibrahim Bayesh

83'

Abdullah Al Rashidi← Abdulrahman Al Safari

83'

Hammam Al Hammami← Hamdan Al Shamrani

87'

Mohammed Al Aqeel← B. Mensah

90+4'

Mohammed Al Aqel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots12

5Corners7

13Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots12

5On Target4

3Off Target5

3Blocked3

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

323Total Passes386

255Accurate Passes318

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0