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Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood — Division 1 2018

Al Riyadh
Al Riyadh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Kholood
Al Kholood
N. Stojiljkovic 69'
A. Hadriti 90+5'
1/31/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 19Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Riyadh35%
×Draw27%
Al Kholood38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Riyadh
1.21
Al Kholood
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Al Riyadh
1.35
Al Kholood
1.15

allows per match

Al Riyadh
1.41
Al Kholood
1.06

finishing

Al Riyadh+0.00on par
Al Kholood+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riyadh ↓

Al Kholood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Riyadh or draw
62%
Al Riyadh or Al Kholood
73%
Draw or Al Kholood
65%

Winning margin

Al Riyadh wins by 2+
15%
Al Kholood wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Riyadh 1+ goals
70%
Al Riyadh 2+ goals
34%
Al Riyadh 3+ goals
12%
Al Kholood 1+ goals
72%
Al Kholood 2+ goals
37%
Al Kholood 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Riyadh (draw refunded)
48%
Al Kholood (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riyadh at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Al Kholood away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riyadh attack 1.35 + Al Kholood defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Al Kholood attack 1.15 + Al Riyadh defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Riyadh scores more
35%
level
27%
Al Kholood scores more
38%

Al Kholood at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Kholood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'
N. Stojiljkovic
90+5'
A. Hadriti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Riyadh 1–1 Al Kholood

Al Riyadh and Al Kholood drew 1-1 in Division 1 on January 31, 2023.

Goals: N. Stojiljkovic (69'), A. Hadriti (90+5').

The match was played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Riyadh.