Al Riyadh 1–3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC: Result & Stats

Al Riyadh

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

3/8/2024

Pro League · Round 23Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Riyadh20%

×Draw23%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al RiyadhExpected goals in this matchAl-Hilal Saudi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.80

Al Riyadh

0.96

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.80

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 88% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 126 away

0.94

creates per match

2.29

1.31

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Al Riyadh

0.94

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.29

allows per match

Al Riyadh

1.31

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Riyadh+0.00on par

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riyadh ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al Riyadh or draw

43%

Al Riyadh or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

77%

Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

80%

Winning margin

Al Riyadh wins by 2+

7%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Al Riyadh 1+ goals

62%

Al Riyadh 2+ goals

25%

Al Riyadh 3+ goals

7%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

83%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

54%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Al Riyadh (draw refunded)

26%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riyadh at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riyadh attack 0.94 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.29 + Al Riyadh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al Riyadh scores more

20%

level

23%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

57%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff