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Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh — Pro League 2018

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Riyadh
Al Riyadh
2/14/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 20Kingdom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC65%
×Draw19%
Al Riyadh16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.25
Al Riyadh
1.00

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 125% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 51 away

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.45
Al Riyadh
1.12

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.88
Al Riyadh
2.06

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par
Al Riyadh+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Al Riyadh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw
84%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Riyadh
81%
Draw or Al Riyadh
35%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
42%
Al Riyadh wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
89%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
65%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
39%
Al Riyadh 1+ goals
63%
Al Riyadh 2+ goals
26%
Al Riyadh 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
81%
Al Riyadh (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

Al Riyadh away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.45 + Al Riyadh defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.25

Al Riyadh attack 1.12 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
65%
level
19%
Al Riyadh scores more
16%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1–1 Al Riyadh

Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh drew 1-1 in Pro League on February 14, 2025.

The match was played at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh.