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Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm — Pro League 2018

Al Riyadh
Al Riyadh
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm
11/30/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 15Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Riyadh43%
×Draw27%
Al-Hazm30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Riyadh
1.40
Al-Hazm
1.13

Al Riyadh creates 24% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 79 away

creates per match

Al Riyadh
0.94
Al-Hazm
0.94

allows per match

Al Riyadh
1.31
Al-Hazm
1.86

finishing

Al Riyadh+0.00on par
Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riyadh ↓

Al-Hazm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Riyadh or draw
70%
Al Riyadh or Al-Hazm
73%
Draw or Al-Hazm
57%

Winning margin

Al Riyadh wins by 2+
20%
Al-Hazm wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Riyadh 1+ goals
75%
Al Riyadh 2+ goals
41%
Al Riyadh 3+ goals
17%
Al-Hazm 1+ goals
68%
Al-Hazm 2+ goals
31%
Al-Hazm 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Riyadh (draw refunded)
59%
Al-Hazm (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riyadh at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Al-Hazm away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.86 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riyadh attack 0.94 + Al-Hazm defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.40

Al-Hazm attack 0.94 + Al Riyadh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Riyadh scores more
43%
level
27%
Al-Hazm scores more
30%

Al Riyadh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Riyadh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al Riyadh 0–0 Al-Hazm

Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm drew 0-0 in Pro League on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Riyadh.