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Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh — Pro League 2018

Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Riyadh
Al Riyadh
5/18/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 32Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al-Hazm41%
×Draw24%
Al Riyadh35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hazm
1.63
Al Riyadh
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 51 away

creates per match

Al-Hazm
1.19
Al Riyadh
1.12

allows per match

Al-Hazm
1.86
Al Riyadh
2.06

finishing

Al-Hazm+0.00on par
Al Riyadh+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hazm ↓

Al Riyadh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al-Hazm or draw
65%
Al-Hazm or Al Riyadh
76%
Draw or Al Riyadh
59%

Winning margin

Al-Hazm wins by 2+
21%
Al Riyadh wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al-Hazm 1+ goals
80%
Al-Hazm 2+ goals
48%
Al-Hazm 3+ goals
22%
Al Riyadh 1+ goals
77%
Al Riyadh 2+ goals
44%
Al Riyadh 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)
54%
Al Riyadh (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hazm at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.86 · 79 matches

Al Riyadh away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hazm attack 1.19 + Al Riyadh defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.63

Al Riyadh attack 1.12 + Al-Hazm defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al-Hazm scores more
41%
level
24%
Al Riyadh scores more
35%

Al-Hazm at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al-Hazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh

Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh drew 1-1 in Pro League on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Ar-Rass Stadium in Rass.