Al Riyadh 0–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah: Result & Stats

Al Riyadh

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2/26/2026

Pro League · Round 24Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Riyadh30%

×Draw26%

Al-Ahli Jeddah44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al RiyadhExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Jeddah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.48

Al Riyadh

1.17

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.48

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

0.94

creates per match

1.65

1.31

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Al Riyadh

0.94

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.65

allows per match

Al Riyadh

1.31

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Riyadh+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riyadh ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al Riyadh or draw

56%

Al Riyadh or Al-Ahli Jeddah

74%

Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah

70%

Winning margin

Al Riyadh wins by 2+

12%

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Al Riyadh 1+ goals

69%

Al Riyadh 2+ goals

33%

Al Riyadh 3+ goals

11%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

77%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

43%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Al Riyadh (draw refunded)

40%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riyadh at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riyadh attack 0.94 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.65 + Al Riyadh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Riyadh scores more

30%

level

26%

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

44%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff