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Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh — Pro League 2018

Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Riyadh
Al Riyadh
10/30/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 7King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah59%
×Draw21%
Al Riyadh20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Jeddah
2.04
Al Riyadh
1.08

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 89% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 51 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
2.01
Al Riyadh
1.12

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.05
Al Riyadh
2.06

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par
Al Riyadh+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al Riyadh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw
80%
Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Riyadh
79%
Draw or Al Riyadh
41%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
36%
Al Riyadh wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
87%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
60%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
33%
Al Riyadh 1+ goals
66%
Al Riyadh 2+ goals
29%
Al Riyadh 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
75%
Al Riyadh (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Al Riyadh away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.01 + Al Riyadh defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.04

Al Riyadh attack 1.12 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
59%
level
21%
Al Riyadh scores more
20%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Riyadh drew 1-1 in Pro League on October 30, 2025.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.