Al Ramms 2–3 Masfut: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al Ramms

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Masfut

10/29/2022

Division 1 · Round 8Al Rams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Ramms33%

×Draw23%

Masfut44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al RammsExpected goals in this matchMasfut

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.71

Al Ramms

1.46

Masfut

1.71

Masfut creates 17% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 99 away

1.24

creates per match

1.24

2.17

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Al Ramms

1.24

Masfut

1.24

allows per match

Al Ramms

2.17

Masfut

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ramms+0.00on par

Masfut+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ramms ↓

Masfut →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Al Ramms or draw

56%

Al Ramms or Masfut

77%

Draw or Masfut

67%

Winning margin

Al Ramms wins by 2+

15%

Masfut wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Al Ramms 1+ goals

77%

Al Ramms 2+ goals

43%

Al Ramms 3+ goals

18%

Masfut 1+ goals

82%

Masfut 2+ goals

51%

Masfut 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Al Ramms (draw refunded)

43%

Masfut (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ramms at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.17 · 42 matches

Masfut away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.68 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ramms attack 1.24 + Masfut defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Masfut attack 1.24 + Al Ramms defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Ramms scores more

33%

level

23%

Masfut scores more

44%

Masfut at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Masfut will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff