Al-Raed 2–1 Al-Adalah: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al-Raed

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Adalah

Júlio Tavares 71'

K. El Berkaoui 63'

L. Palacios 35'

10/1/2022

Pro League · Round 5King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al-Raed48%

×Draw24%

Al-Adalah28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-RaedExpected goals in this matchAl-Adalah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.23

Al-Raed

1.69

Al-Adalah

1.23

Al-Raed creates 37% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 29 away

1.23

creates per match

0.86

1.60

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Al-Raed

1.23

Al-Adalah

0.86

allows per match

Al-Raed

1.60

Al-Adalah

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Raed+0.00on par

Al-Adalah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Raed ↓

Al-Adalah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al-Raed or draw

72%

Al-Raed or Al-Adalah

76%

Draw or Al-Adalah

52%

Winning margin

Al-Raed wins by 2+

26%

Al-Adalah wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al-Raed 1+ goals

82%

Al-Raed 2+ goals

50%

Al-Raed 3+ goals

24%

Al-Adalah 1+ goals

71%

Al-Adalah 2+ goals

35%

Al-Adalah 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al-Raed (draw refunded)

63%

Al-Adalah (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Raed at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.60 · 104 matches

Al-Adalah away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Raed attack 1.23 + Al-Adalah defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Al-Adalah attack 0.86 + Al-Raed defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al-Raed scores more

48%

level

24%

Al-Adalah scores more

28%

Al-Raed at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al-Raed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

82

A. Mitriță

Al-Raed · F

7.9

Match Events

28'

Edson

35'

L. Palacios↳ Arif Al Haydar

46'

Mohammed Al Dossary← Abdullah Al Fahad

46'

Sultan Al Farhan← Awad Al Faraj

63'

K. El Berkaoui↳ Pablo

65'

Khalid Al Khathlan← Abdulmalek Al Shammary

66'

Ahmed Al Sultan← Hassan Al Habib

70'

Abdularahman Al HuribRed card cancelled

71'

Abdularahman Al Hurib

71'

Júlio Tavares↳ Mohammed Salem

79'

Fahad Al Harbi← Arif Al Haydar

79'

Abdullah Hadhereti← Nasser Al Abdali

82'

Walead Al Shangeati← L. Palacios

87'

Abdullah Majrashi← K. El Berkaoui

90+1'

Yahia Al Shehri← A. Mitriță

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-RaedAl-Adalah

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots6

11Corners2

11Fouls23

Shots

14Total Shots6

6On Target2

6Off Target2

2Blocked2

11Inside Box3

3Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

361Total Passes274

285Accurate Passes201

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls23

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1