Al-Adalah 0–3 Al-Raed: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al-Adalah

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Raed

Mansor Al Beshe 90+7'

Júlio Tavares 86' (pen)

M. Fouzair 45+7'

3/11/2023

Pro League · Round 20Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al-Adalah33%

×Draw24%

Al-Raed43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-AdalahExpected goals in this matchAl-Raed

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.58

Al-Adalah

1.36

Al-Raed

1.58

Al-Raed creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 104 away

1.03

creates per match

1.38

1.79

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Al-Adalah

1.03

Al-Raed

1.38

allows per match

Al-Adalah

1.79

Al-Raed

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Adalah+0.00on par

Al-Raed+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Adalah ↓

Al-Raed →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al-Adalah or draw

57%

Al-Adalah or Al-Raed

76%

Draw or Al-Raed

67%

Winning margin

Al-Adalah wins by 2+

15%

Al-Raed wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Al-Adalah 1+ goals

74%

Al-Adalah 2+ goals

39%

Al-Adalah 3+ goals

16%

Al-Raed 1+ goals

79%

Al-Raed 2+ goals

47%

Al-Raed 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Al-Adalah (draw refunded)

44%

Al-Raed (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Adalah at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

Al-Raed away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.70 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Adalah attack 1.03 + Al-Raed defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.36

Al-Raed attack 1.38 + Al-Adalah defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Adalah scores more

33%

level

24%

Al-Raed scores more

43%

Al-Raed at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Raed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Lung

Al-Raed · G

7.9

Match Events

42'

45+5'

45+2'

45+7'

56'

62'

63'

63'

72'

D. Đoković← K. El Berkaoui

83'

Alexandru MitrițăPenalty confirmed

85'

Abdulaziz Aljamman

86'

Júlio TavaresPenalty

87'

Arif Al Haydar← Mohammed Al Oufi

89'

Alexandru Mitriță

90+9'

Fahad Al Harbi← C. Gonzáles

90+8'

Hassan Al Habib← Pedro Eugénio

90+2'

Yahya Sunbul← M. Fouzair

90+2'

Yahia Al Shehri← A. Mitriță

90+9'

Abdulaziz Al Jebreen← Mansor Al Beshe

90+7'

Mansor Al Beshe↳ Yahya Sunbul

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-AdalahAl-Raed

Overview

64%Possession36%

14Total Shots12

8Corners7

12Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots12

3On Target7

8Off Target3

3Blocked2

10Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

529Total Passes304

446Accurate Passes217

84%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1