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Al Rabta Kosti vs Al Merreikh — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
FT
1 – 0
Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
10/29/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 5Kosti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Rabta Kosti23%
×Draw29%
Al Merreikh48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Rabta Kosti
0.78
Al Merreikh
1.26

Al Merreikh creates 62% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 65 away

creates per match

Al Rabta Kosti
0.93
Al Merreikh
1.68

allows per match

Al Rabta Kosti
0.84
Al Merreikh
0.62

finishing

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par
Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Rabta Kosti ↓

Al Merreikh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Rabta Kosti or draw
52%
Al Rabta Kosti or Al Merreikh
71%
Draw or Al Merreikh
77%

Winning margin

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
7%
Al Merreikh wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
54%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
18%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
4%
Al Merreikh 1+ goals
72%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
36%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
33%
Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Rabta Kosti at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Al Merreikh away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.62 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.93 + Al Merreikh defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.78

Al Merreikh attack 1.68 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Rabta Kosti scores more
23%
level
29%
Al Merreikh scores more
48%

Al Merreikh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Rabta Kosti vs Al Merreikh

Al Rabta Kosti beat Al Merreikh 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Kosti Stadium in Kosti.