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Al Merreikh vs Al Rabta Kosti — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
FT
4 – 1
Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
9/19/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 28Al-Merreikh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Al Merreikh71%
×Draw20%
Al Rabta Kosti9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Merreikh
1.91
Al Rabta Kosti
0.50

Al Merreikh creates 282% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 52 away

creates per match

Al Merreikh
1.95
Al Rabta Kosti
0.56

allows per match

Al Merreikh
0.44
Al Rabta Kosti
1.87

finishing

Al Merreikh+0.00on par
Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Merreikh or draw
91%
Al Merreikh or Al Rabta Kosti
80%
Draw or Al Rabta Kosti
29%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh wins by 2+
44%
Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al Merreikh 1+ goals
85%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
57%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
30%
Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
39%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
9%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
89%
Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.44 · 78 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh attack 1.95 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.91

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.56 + Al Merreikh defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Al Merreikh scores more
71%
level
20%
Al Rabta Kosti scores more
9%

Al Merreikh at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Merreikh 4–1 Al Rabta Kosti

Al Merreikh beat Al Rabta Kosti 4-1 in Sudani Premier League on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Merreikh Stadium in Omdurman.