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Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Zawra'a — Iraqi League 2020

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
4/10/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 27Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya42%
×Draw29%
Al Zawra'a29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.25
Al Zawra'a
0.99

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 26% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 110 away

creates per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.81
Al Zawra'a
1.15

allows per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0.83
Al Zawra'a
0.69

finishing

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par
Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Quwa Al Jawiya ↓

Al Zawra'a →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw
71%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya or Al Zawra'a
71%
Draw or Al Zawra'a
58%

Winning margin

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
19%
Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
71%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
36%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
13%
Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
63%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
26%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
59%
Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.83 · 111 matches

Al Zawra'a away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.81 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Zawra'a attack 1.15 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
42%
level
29%
Al Zawra'a scores more
29%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–2 Al Zawra'a

Al Zawra'a beat Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2-1 in Iraqi League on April 10, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Baghdād.