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Al Zawra'a vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Iraqi League 2025

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
H. Jouini 60'
M. Jawad 6' (pen)
10/5/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al Zawra'a33%
×Draw30%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
1.02
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 20 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.33
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.35

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
0.87
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0.70

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
63%
Al Zawra'a or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
70%
Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
67%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
12%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
64%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
27%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
8%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
67%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
30%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
47%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.33 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.02

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.35 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
33%
level
30%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
37%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
M. JawadPenalty
60'
H. Jouini
Al
Al
Abdul Ghani Abbood Al Shahad
Manager: Abdul Ghani Abbood Al Shahad
Wesam Rizik
Manager: Wesam Rizik

Match Recap: Al Zawra'a vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Al Quwa Al Jawiya beat Al Zawra'a 2-0 in Iraqi League on October 5, 2025.

Goals: M. Jawad (6' pen), H. Jouini (60').