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Al-Qasim vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2025

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
P. Gyan 87' (pen)
A. Kute 90+1'
A. Mohammed 71'
9/22/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1Holy Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al-Qasim27%
×Draw24%
Naft Maysan49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
1.18
Naft Maysan
1.66

Naft Maysan creates 41% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 42 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.75
Naft Maysan
1.21

allows per match

Al-Qasim
2.11
Naft Maysan
1.60

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
51%
Al-Qasim or Naft Maysan
76%
Draw or Naft Maysan
73%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
11%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
69%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
33%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
12%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
81%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
49%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
36%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.75 + Naft Maysan defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Naft Maysan attack 1.21 + Al-Qasim defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
27%
level
24%
Naft Maysan scores more
49%

Naft Maysan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Naft Maysan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
A. Mohammed
87'
P. GyanPenalty
90+1'
A. Kute

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al-Qasim 1 – 2 Naft Maysan

Naft Maysan beat Al-Qasim 2-1 in Iraqi League on September 22, 2024.

Goals: A. Mohammed (71'), P. Gyan (87' pen), A. Kute (90+1').

The match was played at Holy Al Najaf Stadium in Najaf.