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Al-Qasim vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2022

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
A. Basim 32', 8'
N. Sioud 90', 87'
D. Gueye Dieme 82'
F. Abdul 76'
R. Hajem 55'
5/19/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Al-Qasim32%
×Draw27%
Naft Maysan41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
1.18
Naft Maysan
1.36

Naft Maysan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 77 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.93
Naft Maysan
1.18

allows per match

Al-Qasim
1.55
Naft Maysan
1.42

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
59%
Al-Qasim or Naft Maysan
73%
Draw or Naft Maysan
68%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
13%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
69%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
33%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
12%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
74%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
39%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
44%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.55 · 76 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.42 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.93 + Naft Maysan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Naft Maysan attack 1.18 + Al-Qasim defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
32%
level
27%
Naft Maysan scores more
41%

Naft Maysan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Naft Maysan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Basim
32'
A. Basim
55'
R. Hajem
76'
F. Abdul
82'
D. Gueye Dieme
87'
N. Sioud
90'
N. Sioud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Qasim vs Naft Maysan

Naft Maysan beat Al-Qasim 5-2 in Iraqi League on May 19, 2026.

Goals: A. Basim (8', 32'), R. Hajem (55'), F. Abdul (76'), D. Gueye Dieme (82'), N. Sioud (87', 90').