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Al-Qasim vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2020

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
S. Ouattara 87'
B. Okor 78', 56'
12/4/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 7Al Kut Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Al-Qasim34%
×Draw28%
Naft Maysan38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
1.15
Naft Maysan
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 112 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.98
Naft Maysan
1.06

allows per match

Al-Qasim
1.40
Naft Maysan
1.31

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
62%
Al-Qasim or Naft Maysan
72%
Draw or Naft Maysan
66%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
14%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
68%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
32%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
11%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
71%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
35%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
47%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.98 + Naft Maysan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Naft Maysan attack 1.06 + Al-Qasim defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
34%
level
28%
Naft Maysan scores more
38%

Naft Maysan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Naft Maysan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
B. Okor
78'
B. Okor
87'
S. Ouattara

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al-Qasim 0–3 Naft Maysan

Naft Maysan beat Al-Qasim 3-0 in Iraqi League on December 4, 2023.

Goals: B. Okor (56', 78'), S. Ouattara (87').

The match was played at Al Kut Stadium in Al Kut.