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Al-Qasim vs Naft — Iraqi League 2025

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Naft
Naft
H. Khalaf 51'
A. Khaled 45'
S. Abd-Ridha 25'
9/14/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1Al-Najaf International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al-Qasim24%
×Draw26%
Naft50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
0.94
Naft
1.51

Naft creates 61% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 40 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.74
Naft
0.78

allows per match

Al-Qasim
2.24
Naft
1.15

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
50%
Al-Qasim or Naft
74%
Draw or Naft
76%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
8%
Naft wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
61%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
24%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
7%
Naft 1+ goals
78%
Naft 2+ goals
44%
Naft 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
32%
Naft (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.24 · 34 matches

Naft away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.74 + Naft defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.94

Naft attack 0.78 + Al-Qasim defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
24%
level
26%
Naft scores more
50%

Naft at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
S. Abd-Ridha
45'
A. Khaled
51'
H. Khalaf

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Qasim vs Naft

Naft beat Al-Qasim 3-0 in Iraqi League on September 14, 2025.

Goals: S. Abd-Ridha (25'), A. Khaled (45'), H. Khalaf (51').

The match was played at Al-Najaf International Stadium in Najaf.