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Al-Qasim vs Naft — Iraqi League 2021

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft
Naft
11/6/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 7Al Kut Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Al-Qasim32%
×Draw30%
Naft38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
0.98
Naft
1.11

Naft creates 13% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 110 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.98
Naft
0.83

allows per match

Al-Qasim
1.40
Naft
0.98

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
62%
Al-Qasim or Naft
70%
Draw or Naft
68%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
12%
Naft wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
62%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
26%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
8%
Naft 1+ goals
67%
Naft 2+ goals
30%
Naft 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
45%
Naft (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Naft away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.98 + Naft defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Naft attack 0.83 + Al-Qasim defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
32%
level
30%
Naft scores more
38%

Naft at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al-Qasim 0 – 0 Naft

Al-Qasim and Naft drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on November 6, 2024.

The match was played at Al Kut Stadium in Al Kut.