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Al-Qasim vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2020

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Erbil
Erbil
2/28/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 19Karbala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Al-Qasim33%
×Draw28%
Erbil39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
1.14
Erbil
1.25

Erbil creates 10% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 110 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.98
Erbil
1.11

allows per match

Al-Qasim
1.40
Erbil
1.29

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
61%
Al-Qasim or Erbil
72%
Draw or Erbil
67%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
14%
Erbil wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
68%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
32%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
11%
Erbil 1+ goals
71%
Erbil 2+ goals
36%
Erbil 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
46%
Erbil (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.98 + Erbil defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Erbil attack 1.11 + Al-Qasim defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
33%
level
28%
Erbil scores more
39%

Erbil at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al-Qasim 0–0 Erbil

Al-Qasim and Erbil drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on February 28, 2023.

The match was played at Karbala Stadium in Karbala.