Al-Qasim 0–0 Al Kahrabaa: Result & Stats

Al-Qasim

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Kahrabaa

9/27/2024

Iraqi League · Round 2Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al-Qasim27%

×Draw25%

Al Kahrabaa48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-QasimExpected goals in this matchAl Kahrabaa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.58

Al-Qasim

1.13

Al Kahrabaa

1.58

Al Kahrabaa creates 40% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 38 away

0.75

creates per match

1.05

2.11

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Al-Qasim

0.75

Al Kahrabaa

1.05

allows per match

Al-Qasim

2.11

Al Kahrabaa

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Al Kahrabaa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw

52%

Al-Qasim or Al Kahrabaa

75%

Draw or Al Kahrabaa

73%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+

11%

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals

68%

Al-Qasim 2+ goals

31%

Al-Qasim 3+ goals

11%

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals

79%

Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals

47%

Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)

36%

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

Al Kahrabaa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.75 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.05 + Al-Qasim defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al-Qasim scores more

27%

level

25%

Al Kahrabaa scores more

48%

Al Kahrabaa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff