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Al Kahrabaa vs Al-Qasim — Iraqi League 2025

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
AWD
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
A. Aiad 9' (pen)
N. Muhammad 2'
12/23/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al Kahrabaa50%
×Draw26%
Al-Qasim24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.51
Al-Qasim
0.95

Al Kahrabaa creates 59% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 29 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.09
Al-Qasim
0.62

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.28
Al-Qasim
1.93

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Al-Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
76%
Al Kahrabaa or Al-Qasim
74%
Draw or Al-Qasim
50%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
26%
Al-Qasim wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
78%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
44%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
19%
Al-Qasim 1+ goals
61%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
25%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
68%
Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Al-Qasim away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.09 + Al-Qasim defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.51

Al-Qasim attack 0.62 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
50%
level
26%
Al-Qasim scores more
24%

Al Kahrabaa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
N. Muhammad
9'
A. AiadPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Kahrabaa face Al-Qasim (Iraqi League)

Iraqi League returns with Al Kahrabaa hosting Al-Qasim. Match starts December 23, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.