Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah — Pro League 2018

Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Orubah
Al Orubah
5/20/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 33Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC62%
×Draw21%
Al Orubah17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qadisiyah FC
2.06
Al Orubah
0.99

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 108% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.71
Al Orubah
0.94

allows per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.05
Al Orubah
2.41

finishing

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par
Al Orubah+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓

Al Orubah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw
83%
Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Orubah
79%
Draw or Al Orubah
38%

Winning margin

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
38%
Al Orubah wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
87%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
61%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
34%
Al Orubah 1+ goals
63%
Al Orubah 2+ goals
26%
Al Orubah 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
78%
Al Orubah (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.05 · 62 matches

Al Orubah away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.71 + Al Orubah defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.06

Al Orubah attack 0.94 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
62%
level
21%
Al Orubah scores more
17%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–1 Al Orubah

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Orubah 3-1 in Pro League on May 20, 2025.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.