Al Orubah 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC: Result & Stats

Al Orubah

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Qadisiyah FC

2/8/2023

Division 1 · Round 20Al-Oruba Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Al Orubah34%

×Draw30%

Al-Qadisiyah FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al OrubahExpected goals in this matchAl-Qadisiyah FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.10

Al Orubah

1.04

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 69 away

1.16

creates per match

1.28

0.93

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Al Orubah

1.16

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.28

allows per match

Al Orubah

0.93

Al-Qadisiyah FC

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Orubah+0.00on par

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Orubah ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Orubah or draw

63%

Al Orubah or Al-Qadisiyah FC

70%

Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC

66%

Winning margin

Al Orubah wins by 2+

13%

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Al Orubah 1+ goals

65%

Al Orubah 2+ goals

28%

Al Orubah 3+ goals

9%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals

67%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals

30%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Orubah (draw refunded)

48%

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Orubah at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.93 · 73 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.93 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Orubah attack 1.16 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.28 + Al Orubah defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Orubah scores more

34%

level

30%

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more

37%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff