Al-Qadisiyah FC 4–0 Al Kholood: Result & Stats

Al-Qadisiyah FC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Kholood

11/6/2025

Pro League · Round 8Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC54%

×Draw23%

Al Kholood24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Qadisiyah FCExpected goals in this matchAl Kholood

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.14

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.84

Al Kholood

1.14

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 61% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 34 away

1.72

creates per match

1.21

1.06

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.72

Al Kholood

1.21

allows per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.06

Al Kholood

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Al Kholood+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓

Al Kholood →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw

76%

Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Kholood

77%

Draw or Al Kholood

46%

Winning margin

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+

30%

Al Kholood wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals

84%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals

55%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals

28%

Al Kholood 1+ goals

68%

Al Kholood 2+ goals

32%

Al Kholood 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)

70%

Al Kholood (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.06 · 64 matches

Al Kholood away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.72 + Al Kholood defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.84

Al Kholood attack 1.21 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more

54%

level

23%

Al Kholood scores more

24%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff