Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Pro League 2018

Al Kholood
Al Kholood
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
12/6/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 13Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Kholood31%
×Draw24%
Al-Qadisiyah FC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kholood
1.33
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.65

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 64 away

creates per match

Al Kholood
1.18
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.58

allows per match

Al Kholood
1.71
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.48

finishing

Al Kholood+0.00on par
Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kholood ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Kholood or draw
55%
Al Kholood or Al-Qadisiyah FC
76%
Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC
69%

Winning margin

Al Kholood wins by 2+
13%
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al Kholood 1+ goals
74%
Al Kholood 2+ goals
38%
Al Kholood 3+ goals
15%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
81%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
49%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al Kholood (draw refunded)
41%
Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kholood at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kholood attack 1.18 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.58 + Al Kholood defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Kholood scores more
31%
level
24%
Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
45%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al Kholood 0–3 Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Kholood 3-0 in Pro League on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Ar-Rass Stadium in Rass.